Three Key Energy Moves Trump Plans for His First 100 Days
- Trump plans to prioritize increasing U.S. oil and gas production by removing federal drilling restrictions, which could lead to lower energy prices.
- Trump may look to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war with a settlement that secures disputed regions for Russia.
- Trump is likely to support Israel in taking action against Iran's nuclear program, aiming to strengthen U.S.-Middle East alliances and counter China’s influence in the region.
Crucially for President-Elect Donald Trump’s second term in office, he will have considerable personal influence over the Senate (in which his Republican Party now holds a majority) and over the Supreme Court (where conservatives hold a six-to-three majority). His Party – and few can argue that it is now truly that – may also secure a majority in the second of the two institutions of Congress, the House of Representatives (at the time of writing, the Republicans had secured 213 of 218 seats needed for a majority in the House, with counting still ongoing). Even without this, though, the re-elected President will have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to push through whatever legislation he wants, especially in the traditional honeymoon period of the first 100 days in office. Three areas that he is likely to address in this period will have enormous ramifications for the global energy sector and the key countries that constitute its core.
One of these areas will be moves to increase the U.S.’s oil and gas production, as stated in several of Trump’s campaign speeches and documented in his ‘Trump Agenda47’. Broadly, he will, “…set a national goal of ensuring that America has the No. 1 lowest cost of energy of any industrial country anywhere on Earth”. He added that to “keep pace with the world economy that depends on fossil fuels for more than 80 percent of its energy, President Trump will DRILL, BABY, DRILL”. He also highlights that he will, “end Biden’s delays in federal drilling permits and leases that are needed to unleash American oil and natural gas production”. This is likely to include the removal of much of the previous Presidential Administration’s pausing of key liquefied natural gas export permits. The likely net effect of this on oil and gas prices will clearly be bearish.